Views: 69 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2021-10-25 Origin: Site
Changes in graphite electrode Market after China National Day ' Holiday
After the China National day, the price of some orders in the graphite market increased by about 150-300 USD / ton compared with the previous period. At present, there is still wait-and-see sentiment in the procurement of steel mills downstream of graphite electrode, and the market trading is still weak. However, due to the tight supply of graphite electrode Market and high cost, graphite electrode enterprises actively push up the price of graphite electrode under the reluctance to sell, and the market price changes rapidly. The specific influencing factors are as follows:
1. The supply of graphite electrode market is expected to decrease under the limited Electrical power
On the one hand, after consumption in about February, the inventory of graphite electrode Market decreased, and some graphite electrode enterprises said that they basically had no inventory;
On the other hand, under the influence of tight power supply since mid September, the provinces have successively spread the news of power restriction, and the degree of power restriction has gradually increased. The production of graphite electrode market is limited and the supply has decreased.
Up to now, the power rationing efforts in most regions are concentrated at 20% - 50%. The limited film impact in Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Shandong, Anhui and Henan is relatively serious, basically about 50%. When some enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Henan are serious, the limited film impact can reach 70% - 80%, and some enterprises have shutdown.
The production of 48 mainstream graphite electrode enterprises in China is counted. Based on the output of graphite electrode in September and the proportion of limited films in the graphite electrode market before the eleventh five year plan, the monthly output of graphite electrode market is expected to decrease by 15400 tons as a whole; According to the proportion of restricted films in the graphite electrode Market after the eleventh five year plan, the monthly output of the graphite electrode market is expected to decrease by 20500 tons as a whole. It can be seen that the power restriction of graphite electrode market has been strengthened after the festival.
In addition, it is understood that some enterprises in Hebei, Henan and other regions have received the notice of environmental protection and production restriction in autumn and winter, and some processes of some graphite electrode enterprises are unable to start due to the influence of winter weather, and the limited scope and intensity of graphite electrode market will be further increased.
2. The market cost of graphite electrode continues to increase
The price of upstream raw materials of graphite electrode continued to rise
After the national day, the prices of low sulfur petroleum coke, coal tar pitch and needle coke upstream of graphite electrode rose comprehensively, and due to the upward impact of coal tar and oil slurry prices, imported needle coke and domestic needle coke continued to rise, with strong expectations, and the cost of graphite electrode continued to increase at a high level.
Based on the current raw material price, theoretically, the comprehensive production cost of graphite electrode is about 19000 CNY /Ton. Some graphite electrode enterprises said they had lost money in production.
Under the limited factory production electric power , the process cost of graphite electrode market increases
In addition, some regional enterprises have received the notice of production restriction in the heating season. In addition to graphitization, roasting and other processes are also limited. It is expected that the cost of some graphite electrode enterprises with incomplete processes will increase.
3. The market demand for graphite electrode is stable and positive
The steel plant downstream of graphite electrode is mainly for rigid demand
Recently, the steel mills downstream of graphite electrode have paid more attention to the power restriction of graphite electrode market, but the pressure of production and power restriction of steel mills still exists, the steel mills are not started enough, and there is still a wait-and-see mood for graphite electrode procurement.
In terms of electric furnace steel, some regions have corrected the "one size fits all" power and production restriction or "Sports" carbon reduction. At present, some electric furnace steel plants have successively resumed production or staggered peak production, and the operating rate of electric furnace steel plants has rebounded slightly, which is good for the demand of electric furnace steel plants for graphite electrodes.
The export of graphite electrode market is expected to increase
After the China National Day, according to some graphite electrode enterprises, the overall export market is relatively stable, and the export inquiry has increased, but the actual transaction has not increased significantly, and the demand for graphite electrode is relatively stable.
However, it is reported that the freight of graphite electrode export ships has decreased recently, and the overstocked inventory in some early ports can be shipped. Due to the sharp rise in sea freight this year, some graphite electrode enterprises said that the freight accounts for about 20% of the export cost of graphite electrode, resulting in some graphite electrode enterprises switching to domestic sales or shipping to neighboring countries. Therefore, the decline in sea freight prices is good for the increase in the export of graphite electrode enterprises.
In addition, the final anti-dumping decision of the European countries will officially impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese graphite electrodes from January 1, 2022. Therefore, overseas enterprises may have some goods in stock in the fourth quarter, and the export of graphite electrodes may increase.
Future forecast: with the gradual expansion of film restrictions and the superposition of environmental protection and production restrictions in autumn and winter and the environmental requirements of the Winter Olympic Games, the production restrictions on the graphite electrode market may continue until March 2022. Under the expectation of continuous contraction of the supply side of the graphite electrode market, the price of graphite electrode is expected to continue to rise.